About

My research focuses on predicting and modelling extremes and rare events in a variety of physical systems. I combine extreme value theory, dynamical systems, and machine learning to tackle problems in climate science, infectious disease, and biomedical research.

I completed my PhD in Mathematics at the University of Houston under the supervision of Professor Matthew Nicol, where my thesis investigated the statistical properties of certain chaotic dynamical systems through extremes and recurrence. Following my doctorate, I held a postdoctoral research position at the Max Planck Institute for the Physics of Complex Systems in Dresden, Germany, working with Professor Holger Kantz.

At UQ, I hold a joint appointment as Senior Lecturer in the School of Mathematics and Physics and Affiliate Senior Lecturer in the School of Chemistry and Molecular Biosciences. I work closely with the Short Lab (Dr. Kirsty Short), applying extreme event analysis to infectious disease research.

Research Highlights

Extreme Value Theory for Dynamical Systems

Establishing statistical properties of maxima in ergodic dynamical systems with physically meaningful observables relevant to climate science.

Dynamical Systems Extreme Value Theory

Rare Event Analysis & ML for SARS-CoV-2

Applying extreme event analysis and machine learning to infectious disease, including host transcriptomics for bacterial co-infections in COVID-19 patients.

Machine Learning Infectious Disease

Extreme Weather in a Changing Climate

Developing regional extreme weather models using extreme value theory, global circulation models, and real-world data across Australia, Texas, and Germany.

Climate Science Statistical Modelling
View all projects

Recent Publications

Successive Fréchet extremal modelling
Kardkasem, R. & Carney, M.
Environmental and Ecological Statistics, 1–19
2025
Host transcriptomics and machine learning for secondary bacterial infections in patients with COVID-19
Carney, M. et al.
The Lancet Microbe, 5(3), e272–e281
2024
Runs of extremes of observables on dynamical systems and applications
Carney, M., Holland, M., Nicol, M. & Tran, P.
Physica D, 460, 134093
2024
View all publications

Teaching

MATH 3403 — Partial Differential Equations
MATH 3201 / MATH 7321 — Scientific Computing
Special Topics — Extreme Value Theory

Professional Service

  • Mathematics Academic Supervisor, SMP Summer Industry Internship Program
  • School of Mathematics and Physics Integrity Board member
  • Co-organiser & Webmaster, ANZIAM 2023 Conference (Cairns)
  • AMSI 2022 Summer School supervisor
  • 15+ conference presentations at international venues including Marseille, San Francisco, Vancouver, and Vienna